Modeling the Cases of Road Traffic Crashes: A Case of Exponential Smoothing Approach
Keywords:
road traffic crashes, exponential smoothing, ARIMA models
Abstract
This study was carried out using the monthly January 2007 to December 2017 with a total of 108 data points reported road traffic crashes along the roads connecting the main city of Enugu State Nigeria In this work we gave a general overview of the three basic aspects of exponential smoothing models proposed with their applications on the cases of road traffic crashes accident The relationship between autoregressive integrated moving average models and exponential smoothing models was also given Using a grid search method for the estimation of smoothing parameters the best exponential smoothing models for each of the cases was identified based on the Mean square error MSE Mean absolute error MAE and Mean absolute percentage error MAPE The Holt-Winter Triple exponential smoothing model expounded by Peter Winter 1960 yielded optimum value in each of the measures for each route since the series exhibit both trend and seasonality
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Published
2020-01-15
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